Kahneman's anchoring effect suggests the current price heavily biases our predictions — traders anchored to recent highs consistently overestimate future peaks.

Kahneman warned about the planning fallacy — we systematically underestimate how long breakthroughs take, yet overestimate how transformative they'll be once they arrive.

Base rate neglect is powerful here — Tversky & Kahneman showed we ignore historical timelines of similar megaprojects and instead anchor to the optimistic forecasts of charismatic leaders.

The availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) means recent headlines about layoffs or bank stress make a recession feel more likely than base rates suggest.

Thaler's overreaction hypothesis shows investors swing wildly on narrative — ask yourself whether your estimate is driven by fundamentals or by the latest Elon headline.

Confirmation bias (Nickerson, 1998) leads Apple fans to overweight rumors that confirm a launch, while skeptics dismiss the same evidence — Annie Duke calls this 'resulting.'

The representativeness heuristic (Kahneman & Tversky) makes us judge likelihood by how well a story fits a narrative — 'government bans popular app' feels familiar, but how often does it actually happen?

Ariely's research on the 'IKEA effect' applies to tech forecasting — companies that have invested years in autonomous driving overvalue their own progress, and so do their fans.

Herd mentality is strong in sports predictions — Thaler's research on the winner's curse shows crowds consistently overvalue recent trends and extrapolate them into the future.

The affect heuristic (Slovic) means our emotional memory of 2020 lockdowns distorts probability estimates — Annie Duke reminds us to separate the vividness of past experience from actual likelihood.